A normal House cattle call (which we have done in the past) would require you to submit a list of seats in order of their likelihood of flipping, but frankly, I find that a bit boring. Instead, why don’t we try this: Confining ourselves to the realm of realistic expectations, what is the best possible scenario for House Republicans on election night? In other words, let me put it this way: Where is “the floor” for Democratic gains in the House?
2006 was pretty bad for Republicans, but it could have been worse. They dodged a few bullets and won a fair share of squeakers (NC-08, NY-29, OH-02, FL-13, etc). It’s not inconceivable that a few incumbents could hang on again by the skin of their teeth. But looking at the key races, we have a handful in the bag already, and a number that are either leaning or tilting our way. In a wave year, “tossup” races tend to break at a greater than 50-50 rate for the victorious party, so I suspect that Democrats will be wrecking shop in this column, as well. And it’s very possible that we’ll see upsets in districts that are seemingly “leaning” or “likely” Republican, too.
So even at my most conservative guess, it’s hard for me to see Democrats picking up fewer than 20 seats. It’s amazing, but losing “only” 20 seats would count as a “good” night for Republicans — or perhaps “best-case nightmare” for the NRCC would be a better way of putting it. I’m sure that there are some people at the DCCC who would wring my neck for saying that, but increasingly, it seems to me like that’s the best that Tom Cole and friends can do right now. And even that is going to be a gloomy night for them.
One last note: that number doesn’t include any losses on our side. Tim Mahoney is a certain goner (just resign, dude), and while Kanjorski might still pull things out, he has an aura of political doom around him right now and it would be no shock to see him lose.
It is certainly true that quite a few of the squeakers stayed R. It would be interesting to see a list of those. Every R victory < 54% to see how it looks this time.
What is the ‘ceiling’, is a good question too. I would say at least 40, maybe 45.
Here is my list in alphabetical order on which specific seats we would most likely win RIGHT NOW. There are also a few seats we will lose and then another 8 Republican Seats that I would classify as Pure Tossup right now.
AL-2 (Everett) | AK-AL – Young | AZ-1 (Renzi) | CA-4 (Doolittle) | CO-4 – Musgrave | CT-4 – Shays | FL-8 – Keller | FL-24 – Feeney | ID-1 – Sali | IL-10 – Kirk | IL-11 (Weller) | MI-7 Walberg | MI-9 Knollenberg | MN-3 (Ramstad) | MN-6 – Bachmann | NV-3 – Porter | NJ-3 (Saxton) | NJ-7 (Ferguson) | NM-1 (Wilson) | NM-2 (Pearce) | NY-13 (Fossella) | NY-25 (Walsh) | NY-29 – Kuhl | NC-8 – Hayes | OH-1 – Chabot | OH-15 (Pryce) | OH-16 (Regula) | PA-3 – English | VA-11 (Davis) | WA-8 – Reichert
20 Seats I expect to flip at this point:
NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, AZ-01, VA-11, IL-11, AK-AL, OH-16, OH-15, FL-24, FL-08, NC-08, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, MI-07, MI-09, CO-04, MN-03, MN-06, NV-03, LA-04
14 seats I think are toss ups at this point:
PA-03, OH-01, NM-02, ID-01, CT-04, FL-21, AL-02, FL-25, AZ-03, WA-08, IL-10, MD-01, MO-09, KY-02
Then there are 21 seats that have the “Upset Opportunity” out there.
1-3 losses from FL-16, PA-11, and TX-22
A good night for them would include holding Phil English, Dave Reichert, Ric Keller, Chris Shays, NM-02 and AL-02.
As things stand today, I expect them to lose at least 5 of those. English will go down by double digits. Shays is a pure toss-up and the only one that could go either way.
Since we are asking what the floor is, I going to be more pessimistic.
AZ-01, IL-11, NY-25, NY-13, FL-24, OH-16, VA-11, MI-09, MN-03, NC-08, PA-03. That’s only 11 seats that I see as the floor. The floor being the BEST the GOP can hope for on election night, losing only 11 seats. I see the floor as seats that are lost causes, and beyond any help at this point for the Republicans. That being said, I do not think the Democrats will be settling for the ‘floor’ come November 4th! Since this is a wave year a lot of seats above the floor WILL flip, but that doesn’t mean they are on the floor.
I think PA-03 and MN-03 may be surprising to see on my ‘floor’ list, but, I see the MN and National GOP trying to save Bachman and thus we get MN-03. Likewise, I think PA-03 is going to loose attention as the GOP focuses on PA-11.
I view seats like the NJ twins, NJ-07 and NJ-03, as above the floor because we could well see either or both stay Republican. Polling has been weak despite huge Democratic money advantages. I think we do pick up both in the end but, to disclose, I live in NJ-07 and as much as I would love to see Stender sent to the house, I cannot say the seat is part of the floor, in fact I think it is more a toss-up than even lean Dem right now.
Likewise AK-AL, Alaska is just too Republican to call it part of the floor, and with Palin on the ticket I don’t think we can call it in the bag, even though it pretty much is, a surprise cannot be ruled out there.
So, for my floor, best night for the Republicans, they lose 11. I bet they lose triple that amount in the end though. I think Obama’s ground game is going to have a huge benefit to down ticket candidates, especially those in states he will be winning (CT-04, the NJ seats, CO-04, IL-10, MI-07, NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, OH-15, OH-01, WA-08, etc)
Cheers
The floor is probably 20–which would be a severe disappointment–with a ceiling at around 40. I’m thinking around 30 is most likely. Unfortunately, my district, CA-52, is not going to flip. It’s featuring Son of Duncan Hunter, the Sequel–definitely a horror story.
Or in the GOP’s case, their “best-case scenario”, probably looks like this:
– Obama “only” wins about 290-300 electoral votes, meaning McCrazy holds “red states” like Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana, while losing grasp of Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, & Virginia.
– Democrats “only” pick up 5-6 Senate seats, meaning close races like Minnesota & Mississippi stay red while the more “Lean Dem” races (like Oregon & Colorado) flip blue.
– Democrats “only” pick up a net 15-25 House seats. If the GOP can save newly endangered incumbents like “Crazy Dana” here in CA-46 while also picking off Kanjorski in PA-11 & Mahoney in FL-16, they’ll probably feel relieved that they avoided the worst.
This is why I’m doing as much as I can to make our win BIG! I don’t want the GOP to feel “relieved” on November 5, only to mock us afterwards for “not winning a mandate” while proclaiming that “America is still a conservative country”. I want Democrats to win as BIG as possible so that we can claim a clear mandate & make sure the GOP is in a place where they’ll have to spend a full decade (at least) to clean up their act & become a more respectable opposition party. Sorry that I’m starting to get all “political philosopher/theorist” on you, but this is what I’m thinking.
from 233 R to 202 D to a 233 D and 202 R. With three specials we are at 236 – 199 keeping Stephanie Tubbs seat in blue naturally. I predict a 44 seat gain with 280 D to 155 R. The 155 is the Republican Floor in a change and tsunami sea shift election that 2008 will be!
AK-AL, CO-04, AZ-01, NM-01, MN-03, IL-11, FL-24, FL-08, NY-13, NY-25, PA-03, OH-15, OH-16, VA-11, MI-07, MI-09, NC-08
And with the big 3: FL-16, PA-11, TX-22 (in that order), with maybe PA-12 added to the list recently (i’m still skeptical). Still, to be safe, lets say 2.
So that makes about net -15 the best case scenario for the GOP. Pathetic.
However, there are so many races that could really go either way (but not necessarily 50-50, many of these we lead in):
AL-02, WA-08, CA-04, NV-03, AZ-03, NM-02, MN-06, IL-10, MO-06, MO-09, LA-04, FL-21, FL-25, VA-02, NJ-03, NJ-07, CT-04, NY-29, NY-26, MD-01, KY-02, OH-01, OH-02, ID-01, WY-AL.
And then those that are now legitimate pickup opportunities, yet where we’re still behind in: TX-07, TX-10, CA-03, CA-46, NV-02, FL-13, FL-18, SC-01, VA-05, VA-10, IN-03, AL-03, NE-02, MN-02, even the NC-05, NC-10, OH-07, races
Also, do not be surprised to see complete wildcard incumbents lose their races, particularly some like PA-18, IA-04, VA-04 or MI-11.
25, I simply dont see us not winning at least 25. Ceiling is around 60.
For sure, we flip OH-15,OH-16 and OH-01.
If we get a big “wave” we flip OH-02, finally ousting the Wicked Witch of the West. (She’s melting, she’s melting…)
But (and you heard it here first…) keep your eyes on OH-07 with a Cook PVI of R +6. It’s an open seat following Hobson’s retirement. Attorney Sharen Neuhardt (D-Yellow Springs) has run an EXCELLENT campaign. The GOP is in retreat across the Midwest. The D-Trip can afford to start shifting some last minute resources and spending. And, in the last filing reports, she actually outraised her opponent!
If we pick up OH-07 (and we very well might!) that means that the wave is gonna be HUGE.
Too bad Voinovich doesn’t have to run this year. He’d be toast. Burnt toast. Burnt toast like the dog wouldn’t touch.
I’d say a tidal wave could bring in a maximum of 40 new seats.
Best case for defense is only losing Mahoney, but I think Kanjorski is on the way out too, and Lampson is 50/50.
Let’s see in this “floor” world McCain narrowly wins by, say holding Obama to pickups in IA, NM and CO and picking off PA. This would require some earth shaking thing to happen but let’s say it does.
We’re going to win for sure in NY-13, AZ-01, NY-25 and almost certainly in VA-11, IL-11, FL-24 and OH-16. If the world suddenly magically changed and the Republicans had a amazing surge then we’d still win those seats and probaly a few more.
So the magic fairy land floor has the Republicans losing 10. 20 sounds good for a floor with no earthquakes.
If EVERYTHING and I mean everything goes our way we could win up to 65 seats. But that’s pretty far out of reach.
My prediction is something in the thirties. If I had to say a number I’d say 33.
Looks like alot of people are expecting about 20 for the GOP to lose, and I agree with them.
Best case senerio:
Dems flip 18-20 seats
GOP flips 1-4 seats
In the worst case scenario, we still flip:
NY-13, NY-25, VA-11, AZ-01, IL-11, FL-24, CO-04, NC-08, OH-16, AK-AL, PA-03, MI-07, MI-09, NY-29, FL-08
(so there would be tough holds by incumbents like Shays, Kirk, Porter, Chabot, and Reichert)
and we also lose: FL-16 (given), PA-11, TX-22, and NH-01
In the best case scenario we only lose Mahoney and flip about 45 seats – meaning we’d have to knock off the likes of Shadegg, the Diaz-Balarts, Souder, Terry, Schmidt, and Drake
Unfortunately I won’t have the pleasure of seeing us dump my joke of a congressman, Todd Akin. (ugh)
To put in terms of politics I think Democrats will make gains somewhere between the 1982 Midterms (where Democrats took 27 seats during a “Republican Recession” as Speaker of the house Tip O’neil called it) and the Watergate massacre of 1974 (where the Republicans bled away a whopping 48 seats!)